Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently trading around $81,816, and if you take a closer look at the 4-hour chart, something interesting jumps out: BTC seems to be following a repetitive three-step pattern—consolidate, break down, bounce, and then… repeat.
Image Source: TradingView
Let’s walk through the pattern and what it might be telling us next.
Table of contents [Show]
Step-by-Step: The Pattern in Play
Since mid-January 2025, Bitcoin has entered a noticeable cycle that’s now appeared three times. Here's what we’re seeing on the chart:
1- First Consolidation Phase (near $105,000)
BTC traded sideways for a while in this range (highlighted in yellow on the chart), suggesting a period of indecision or accumulation. Eventually, price broke down sharply, kicking off a fast decline.
2- Second Consolidation Phase (near $97,000)
After the drop, Bitcoin bounced and entered another consolidation zone. Notably, during this phase, the first Death Cross appeared on February 7, when the 200-period SMA crossed above the 50-period SMA—typically a bearish signal. Shortly after, on February 24, the price broke down again.
3- Third Consolidation Phase (near $84,000)
Once more, the bounce led to a new consolidation range. Just like before, a second Death Cross formed—this time on April 2—and again, this was followed by downward pressure on price.
And now? Bitcoin has made another small rebound and is holding just above $81,000. The pattern so far suggests we could be setting up for another move lower.
What Does This Tell Us?
So far, each consolidation zone has led to a sharp breakdown, and in the last two cases, a death cross appeared shortly before the decline. If this pattern continues, we might be facing another leg down, with the next potential target around $75,000—a roughly 9% drop from current levels.
The structure is clear:
Consolidation (shown in yellow) → Breakdown → Bounce → Death Cross → Repeat
Could this be a classic case of distribution followed by markdown phases? Or is the market just grinding through a broader correction?
Questions Bitcoin Traders Should Ask Themselves
Will BTC repeat this structure once more and break down from the current level?
Is the latest bounce above $81,000 a genuine reversal—or just a temporary pause before more downside?
Could $75,000 be the next strong support zone if the pattern plays out again?
Final Thoughts
The chart paints a compelling picture: Bitcoin has been moving in a repeatable rhythm, and each phase has played out with a certain level of technical precision. That said, past price behavior doesn't guarantee future moves—so it’s important to wait for confirmation before entering any trades.
Keep an eye on support around $80,000 and watch volume closely—a strong break with momentum could confirm the next leg. Until then, Bitcoin seems to be dancing to a familiar beat.
Is this just another loop in the pattern—or are we approaching a breakout that changes the game?
